Sustainability comes into focus
While the number of countries that have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions now covers around 70% of global emissions of CO2, most pledges do not have adequate near-term policies and measures. Moreover, even if successfully fulfilled, the pledges so far still put the world on track for 2.7C of warming by 2100, far beyond the "below 2C" goals of the Paris climate accord, according to the latest report from the UN Environment Programme.
In 2015, the year of the Paris accord, emissions from human activities were nearly 47Bt of greenhouse gases, expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents. By 2020, this level was an estimated 52Bt. The rise, however, has slowed due to the rapid deployment of cleaner energy systems.
About 60% of GHG emissions come from just 10 countries, while the 100 least-emitting contributed less than 3%. Energy makes up nearly three-quarters of global emissions, followed by agriculture. Within the energy sector, the largest emitting sector is electricity and heat generation, followed by transportation and manufacturing. Land use, land use-change and forestry are both a source and sink of emissions and key sector to get to net-zero emissions.
Many countries have vowed to slash emissions even faster, but these pledges currently only exist on paper. If nations were to follow through, the world could potentially limit total warming to between 2 and 2.4C. To limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5C, drastic action would be required.
Wealthy nations only reached about US$80bn of the annual US$100bn in climate finance that they pledged in 2009 to channel to poorer nations by 2020. The current target is 2023, although recent commitments by countries including the UK and Japan could enable it to be reached by 2022. By contrast, investment by G20 nations in fossil fuels this year is expected to be six times that amount. About 60% of greenhouse gas emissions come from just 10 countries, while the 100 least-emitting countries contribute less than 3%.
Given the tight timeframe the world has to meet the Paris agreement, any successful climate policy must be intrusive. Countries will need to rapidly overhaul their energy, transport, residential and agricultural sectors - and this will inevitably create winners and losers. In this context, governments must ensure that the cost of climate action does not disproportionately fall on the most vulnerable, exacerbating inequality.
2021 Outlook
Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are on course to surge by 1.5Bt in 2021-the second-largest increase in history-reversing most of last year's decline caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the IEA. This would be the biggest annual rise in emissions since 2010, during the carbon-intensive recovery from the global financial crisis. It leaves global emissions in 2021 around 400 Mt CO2, or 1.2%, below the 2019 peak.
Global CO2 emissions declined by 5.8% in 2020, or almost 2 Gt CO2-the largest ever decline. Despite the decrease, global energy-related CO2 emissions remained at 31.5Gt, which led to CO2 reaching its highest ever average annual concentration in the atmosphere of 412.5 parts per million in 2020-around 50% higher than when the industrial revolution began.
The IEA estimates that CO2 emissions will increase by almost 5% this year to 33Bt, based on the national data, economic growth trends and new energy projects that are set to come online. The key driver is a rebound in demand for coal, oil and gas as economic activity recovers from the depths of the pandemic.
Even with an increase in CO2 emissions from oil of over 650Mt CO2 in 2021, oil-related emissions are expected to recover only around half of the 2020 drop and thus should remain 500 Mt CO2 below 2019 levels, due to the continued impact of the pandemic-namely, lower global transport activity.
Global coal use is anticipated to rebound in 2021 and drive an increase in global CO2 emissions of around 640Mt CO2. This would push emissions from coal to 14.8Gt CO2-0.4% above 2019 levels and only 350Mt CO2 short of the global high in 2014. The power sector accounted for less than 50% of the drop in coal-related emissions in 2020, but it accounts for 80% of the rebound, largely due to rapidly increasing coal-fired generation in Asia.
CO2 emissions from natural gas combustion are expected to increase by more than 215Mt CO2 in 2021 to reach an all-time high of 7.35 Gt CO2, 22% of global CO2 emissions. Gas use in buildings and industry accounts for much of the trend, with demand in public and commercial buildings seeing the greatest drop in demand in 2020 but the biggest anticipated recovery in 2021.
Emerging markets and developing economies now account for more than two-thirds of global CO2 emissions, while emissions in advanced economies are in a structural decline, despite an anticipated 4% increase in 2021. CO2 emissions from advanced economies have fallen by 1.8Gt CO2 since 2000, and their share in global emissions has declined by twenty percentage points to less than one-third of the global total.
China's emissions are likely to increase by around 500Mt CO2, which would be 6%, or almost 600 MtCO2, above 2019 levels. Coal is expected to contribute 70% to the increase. Despite rapid growth in renewables, output from coal-fired power plants has increased by 330TWh, or nearly 7%, between 2019 and 2021.
In the US, CO2 emissions in 2021 are expected to rebound by more than 200Mt CO2 to 4.46Gt CO2. However, emissions are anticipated to remain 5.6% below 2019 levels and 21% below 2005 levels. CO2 emissions from coal are expected to be almost 12% below 2019 as it is likely to recover only 40% of what has been lost to renewables and natural gas in 2020. Oil use, the biggest contributor to US CO2 emissions, should remain almost 6% below 2019 levels on lower transport activity.
India's recovery in 2021 is set to push emissions almost 200Mt higher than 2020, leaving emissions 1.4% (or 30 Mt) above 2019 levels. The expected rise in coal-fired electricity generation is likely to be three times greater than the increase in renewables. CO2 emissions in India are now broadly on par with emissions in the EU at 2.35Gt, although they remain two-thirds lower on a per capita basis and 60% below the global average.
New Moves
The Global Methane pledge, which was signed by 105 countries at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, commits signatories to reducing methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. While the signatories to the pledge include half of the world's top 30 methane emitters, several big contributors to global emissions, including China, Russia and India, have not joined.
Methane has 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period, making the reduction of methane emissions vital to efforts to tackle global warming. The initiative has estimated that a 30% fall in methane emissions by the end of the decade would reduce global warming by at least 0.2C by 2050. Temperatures have already risen by an estimated 1.1C since pre-industrial times.
More than 40 countries pledged to phase out or stop investing in new coal-fired plants at the climate summit in Glasgow. The pact, known as the "Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement", includes more than 20 countries that made the pledge for the first time. The signatories include five of the world's top 20 power generators-Poland, Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam and Ukraine.
However, several of the world's biggest coal consumers and producers were notably absent from the pact. These included China and India, which together burn around two-thirds of the world's coal, and the US, which still generates just under one-fifth of its electricity from coal. Australia, the world's 11th-largest user of coal and a major exporter, also declined to sign the pledge.
The UK said the new coal initiative would help to shut down 40GW of coal-fired power plants, enough to power 30m homes, in 20 countries. The commitment, however, relates to unabated coal power, which means it only applies to plants not equipped with carbon capture and sequestration technology. Furthermore, the agreement was vague on key details, such as exact phase-out dates. The statement only says that major economies will commit to phasing out coal power "in the 2030s (or as soon as possible thereafter)"-a significant delay from the original 2030 goal. Developing countries, meanwhile, would phase out coal "in the 2040s (or as soon as possible thereafter)".
This year, the US has signed on to a global deal to reduce methane emissions, designated climate change a "systemic risk" to the US financial system and labelled it a threat to national security and global stability. If the administration's infrastructure package is approved, it is expected to include more the US$500bn in climate measures. A carbon tax has also been occasionally floated in the US but has so far been ruled out. The absence of one could make it harder for the US to meet its own goal of halving its 2005 greenhouse gas emissions levels by 2030.
China has released a climate road map this year, which includes steps to expand hydropower and energy storage. The new action plan repeats the country's targets to bring wind and solar capacity to 1,200GW by the end of the decade. From 2025, all new buildings will be built according to green standards. By 2030, 40% of new vehicles, including ships and cars, will be powered by clean energy, according to the policy document released by China's State Council. Beijing has retained its pledge to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The country has not disclosed how much emissions would increase before this date and how fast they would decline afterwards.
Fumio Kishida, Japan's prime minister, has promised up to US$10bn in additional climate finance for developing countries during COP26. This would be on top of an existing US$60bn announced in June by his predecessor. Japan aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 46% by 2030 and be a net-zero emitter by 2050.
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi said his country would significantly expand its renewable energy sources and aim to be "net-zero" by 2070, in the boldest move yet for the world's third-largest polluter. The country plans to increase its non-fossil fuel power capacity to 500GW by the end of the decade, up from a previously planned 450GW. Mr Modi said half of India's electricity will come from renewable sources by 2030. He did not, however, include details about when his country's emissions would peak or decline.
India wasn't the only country to announce a new net-zero target at COP26. Vietnam said it would target net zero by 2050, while Brazil is aiming to cut emissions by 50% this decade. Prior to the November summit, Australia and Saudi Arabia both announced their plans to become net-zero emitters by 2050. Both of these plans include the continued use of fossil fuels.
The UK government in October pledged to decarbonise the UK's electricity system by 2035, instead of the previous target of 2050. The government has already committed to removing coal from the electricity mix no later than 2025 and perhaps as early as 2024. The UK generated a record 43% of its electricity from renewable sources in 2020 but gas-fired power plants still account for a significant proportion. Nuclear power plants, which currently provide about a sixth of the UK's electricity, would also continue to form part of the energy mix under the net zero plans. The amount of renewable capacity connected to the grid has increased from 8GW in 2009 to 48GW at the end of June 2021-up 500%.
Australia in October pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. The country will maintain a reliance on fossil fuels, which account for more than 90% of the primary energy mix in 2019-20, with renewable energy accounting for 7%, according to government figures. The decarbonisation plan is heavily reliant on hydrogen energy and carbon capture and storage.
Saudi Arabia also unveiled plans in October to achieve net-zero status by 2060. Riyadh will invest SAR700bn (US$187bn) in climate action by 2030 but keep pumping oil and gas for decades, under a plan submitted to the UN. The Kingdom said that by 2030 it would reduce, avoid and remove 278Mt of CO2 equivalent a year. That is more than double its previous target of 130Mt. This amounts to a 35% reduction in emissions from "business as usual". Half of the country's electricity in 2030 will come from renewables, according to the updated plan, up from less than 1% today. The Kingdom also said it would plant 10bn trees to combat desertification and reduce emissions.