While automakers are still betting big on future demand for EVs and the long-term path looks bright, the industry’s red-hot projections that assumed sustained, rapid growth have received a reality check.
Car giants including Ford, Toyota and Volkswagen have all
trimmed their expectations for EV sales in recent months. Renault has called
off a stock market listing of its EV unit, partly citing weak demand. Ford and
General Motors have recently scaled back expansion plans.
But this is not a story of doom and gloom. Global EV sales will
continue growing, but at a slower pace as widespread adoption is being held
back by higher comparative prices and inadequate infrastructure. We expect
global EV sales (BEV + PHEV) to rise by 21% to 16.5m in 2024, compared to the
30% growth to 13.6m last year.
EVs are becoming mainstream. They made up 18% of global passenger
vehicle sales last year, from just 4% in 2020. We expect that share to rise to
24% in 2025. The biggest EV sellers will see robust sales increases this year, even
as the rate of growth eases.